Three months in, is Trump losing the Iran conflict?
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May 23, 2026
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US Head Donald Trump may have won just about every battle against Iran, but three months after attacking the Islamic Republic he now faces a bigger
An illustrative image related to: Three months in, is Trump losing the Iran conflict?, highlighting key aspects of the story. | Image source: Geo News
Three months in, is Trump losing the Iran conflict?
US Head Donald Trump may have won just about every battle against Iran, but three months after attacking the Islamic Republic he now faces a bigger question: Is he losing the conflict?
With Iran’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz, its resistance to nuclear concessions and its theocratic province largely intact, doubts are growing that Trump can translate the US legal defence team’s tactical successes into an outcome he can frame convincingly as a geopolitical win.
His repeated claims of complete victory ring hollow, some analysts say, as the two sides teeter between uncertain diplomacy and his on-again-off-again threats to resume strikes, which would be sure to draw Iranian retaliation across the zone.
Trump is now at risk of seeing the US and its Gulf Arab allies emerge from the dispute worse off while Iran, though battered militarily and economically, could end up with greater leverage, having shown it can throttle one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies.
The crisis is not yet over, and some experts leave open the possibility Trump might still find a face-saving way out if dialogue break in his favor.
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