Bitcoin briefly tumbled below $101,000 as investor panic gripped the market amid escalating Middle East tensions, before staging a dramatic rebound above $102,800.
The swift recovery, driven by a surge in trading volume and technical buying support, highlights BTC’s resilience even in periods of geopolitical uncertainty.
Hedge fund manager James Lavish criticized the sell-off as misguided, underscoring Bitcoin’s role as a long-term hedge rather than a short-term risk play.
Recovery After Panic Sell-Off
Following news of U.S. strikes on Iran, Bitcoin plunged 2.9% from $103,970 down to a low of $100,962, marking the lowest point in over two weeks.
Within minutes of hitting the bottom, aggressive buy orders emerged, sending BTC back above $102,800 and preventing a deeper slide.
Barron’s noted that while Bitcoin often moves with risk assets, this rapid reversal bucks the typical safe-haven narrative.
Volume Surge Signals Buying Support
Trading volume spiked to 17,906 BTC, the highest intraday volume seen in over a month, reflecting strong market conviction.
NewsBTC reported daily on-chain volume jumping nearly 100% amid the volatility, reinforcing the depth of the rebound.
Major exchanges recorded consecutive minutes with over 150 BTC traded each, demonstrating buyers’ aggressive entry at lower levels.
Technical Analysis & Key Support Levels
Technical charts now identify a solid support zone between $102,000 and $104,000, with Fibonacci retracement levels corroborating this range.
Cointelegraph analysts argue that holding above $102K is critical to prevent a deeper correction toward $100K.
On-chain metrics such as the RSI and MACD have crossed back into bullish territory, suggesting momentum is shifting favorably for buyers.
Expert Insight: James Lavish on War-Driven Selling
James Lavish, managing partner at the Bitcoin Opportunity Fund, decried the panic selling: “If you are selling Bitcoin because of the possibility of the world going to war, you have absolutely no idea what you own.”
Lavish’s critique highlights a broader debate on Bitcoin’s true role: long-term store of value versus short-term speculative vehicle.
Market Sentiment & Derivatives Demand
Options markets continue to price in geopolitical risk, with put-call skew remaining elevated as traders buy downside protection.
Open interest in Bitcoin futures also climbed, indicating heightened hedging activity rather than pure directional bets.
This balanced demand suggests market participants are cautious but not capitulating, waiting for clearer macro signals.
Historical Context: Bitcoin’s Track Record in Geopolitical Crises
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict of 2022, BTC fell over 10% before recovering to pre-crisis levels within weeks, demonstrating its ability to rebound.
Historically, such patterns reveal Bitcoin’s dual identity as both a high-volatility asset and a potential hedge over extended horizons.
Contrastingly, traditional safe-havens like gold often outperform during acute conflicts, as noted by the Wall Street Journal.
Outlook: What to Watch Next
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $100K and $110K, with a break above $104K potentially signaling renewed bullish momentum.
Key catalysts include U.S. inflation data, Federal Reserve policy clarity, and any further escalation or de-escalation of Middle East tensions.
Traders should monitor on-chain flows and derivatives positioning to anticipate whether buyers can sustain the current support levels.
Sources:
- Crypto Market Analysis
- Crypto Report In Pakistan
- Coindesk: Bitcoin Rallies Above $102K After Panic Sellers Dump Into War Fears
- AMBCrypto: Crypto in War Crisis? Not Bitcoin
- Bloomberg: Bitcoin Options Show Traders Hedging Against a Dip to $100,000